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Conversations with Don
How it is now 9/11/10
I think you could say 30 year treasures are up. Gold is up. Dollar is down. Stocks are down. There should be a regression toward the mean of those paramters over time - looks like the Yen is here to stay, increasing their purchasing power for US goods. The Japanese should be buying.

Things are good 2/10/10
We're good. America's back on top. The Euro isn't a country. China relies on us for a market, their productivity is contingient on us. They will develop their own markets in time; where we have our own market and we have a highly productive workforce.
Realestate is not good. It still has to unwind more. - Jobs outlook is good; for jobs that cannot be exported.

Things are good 5/26/09
The market's up 30%, everyone is saying the sky is falling but things are good.
The Chinese got dollars, if  they don't buy treasuries - they can buy goods and services.
I wouldn't bet on the Euro -  'cause they're not even a country. Nothing to back it.

Shake Out 9/15/08
Well, it's a shake out - and we'll see. 
It will be a long time before real-estate goes up. Nobody is going to want to invest in mortgages. 
This will probably not effect equity, however. - It will probably not be too bad for the dollar, either. - This whole thing does show gold is a safe haven during extreme turbulence. 

The beauty of this is oil is down. And that's good for equities. 

No telling how long oil will stay down. - It is certainly down 30% at present.

The problem is they deregulated banks and allowed the investment houses to get into mortgages - I don't see either Obama or McCain addressing this seriously - both promise expenditures that won't happen - so both seem irrelevant to the problems facing the US. 

Misuse of Money 7/16/08
Misuse of the dollar by the Fed and the Treasury - to, unsuccessfully, click up the Dow averages have left investors with no place to hide. 
This has created a series of bubbles, in real estate, oil and gold; when in fact a strong dollar should be a way to hide.

The trouble being that each of these bubbles are not sufficient in size for everyone to hide in. 

You have to put your dollars in something and these various areas are insufficient. Its a real mess. 

Treasury Policy Works to Support World Hunger 4/28/08
Treasury policy for supports of the dollar actually function to weaken the US dollar, internationally.
This translates as a cause of starvation in the world. While, at first, the trend towards the weak dollar began forcing investment dollars into hard commodity markets such as gold an silver; now investment is pushed for soft commodities. Because of the push for soft commodities, the continuing protection of investment principles causes a rise in world food price. The harm from the result of such policy becomes a real problem on world food stocks.

What about swords? 
Investing in swords, more like a hard commodity in this case, is perhaps less harmful. -Less harmful and less volatile for sure. It's a little moral thing. :-}

Sword prices rising... 10/21/2007
The economy is fairly flat - no inflation except with the very rich, specifically, the fine arts. Even Googling the fine arts would show this. 
Prices for fine arts are going up. Prices for swords, the better swords and the sword market generally, therefore, will rise.

What about the economy? 9/24/07
Really bad - Things are bad. Bad government right now - they're running it into the ground.
I just read Cheney's portfolio; he has a money manger who is apparently no good, losing his money right and left. Regardless, he's betting against the dollar - foreign bonds, foreign funds - he's betting on the US going down. 

On Gold:
The question is whether gold is or is not a form of money.  It was, so were sea shells.  If it is not money then it is simply another commodity and will not act as a reserve currency as some believe it will.  That said everyone should have some gold.
Warm regards Don

March 5th, '07
The Yen is appreciating rapidly. Therefore, as swords are tied to the Yen, swords are appreciating rapidly. 
Gold is down. When the Yen was down, borrowing allowed investment in the gold market. Now that the the Yen is going up, gold is being dumped to pay back the borrowed Yen. Gold should otherwise be good, but it is troubled by the rise of the Yen. 

Therefore swords are heading up.

February 18, 2007
With the market high, The American economy so strong - what can happen? The Chinese have all those dollars, -they'll have to buy something. What will they buy? 
For swords, the Yen is weak, weak against the Euro. I would say the Europeans are in good position to buy swords.


Two Horned Bull-Market for Swords
Inflation risk and low interest rates bode well for antiquity values.

Infusions of liquidity in the money supply sponsored by the Fed threaten inflationary pressures when the recovery starts, possibly even sometime next year. The year-over-year growth of the monetary base in October was 8.5%.

Moreover, extremely low interest rates are good for antiquities markets. The lost-opportunity cost of placing cash elsewhere is now almost nil. In other words, an antiquity need only appreciate a small percentage each year to keep pace with the interest rates now available.

Because of recession fears, prices have not yet moved up.

(Update: November 10, 2001)


Don, what is meant by "Two-horned Bull-Market"?

"The situation looks like a two-horned bull-market for swords. That is, low-interest with inflation risk. 

What with the World Trade-Center and the military mobilization, National Guard walking around airports, etc, who's going pay for that? The costs are in the billions. There are only two ways out of it  - raise taxes or print money. This is inflationary risk. 
Look, three years ago when the market was rising 20%, a man would have to have been a fool to put hard investment money in antiques over the stock market. Today however, at 2.5% in a money market fund, a person who wants a special thing or collectable has no reason not to go ahead. 
Putting money from, say, bonds into that sword you want and have something you can enjoy; -this is perfectly smart at this time."




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